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Last post 19 years ago by SteveS. 12 replies replies.
Political Polling and Cell Phone Users
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00camper Offline
#1 Posted: Thu, Oct 7 2004, 8:45 AM EST
Joined: 07-11-2003
Posts: 2,326
I've been reading the threads about political polls and the assumption that, because cell phone users aren't being included, the poll results are wrong.

This assumption is nonsense.

Opinion researchers don't need to ask everybody about their voting preference to determine the general mood of the country, they only need to ask enough people for the results to be statistically significant, hence the margin of error cited in every poll you hear or read about. You will notice that the margin of error is INVERSLY PROPORTIONAL to the sample size. A poll of 1,500 likely voters will have a SMALLER margin of error than a poll of 500 likely voters. This is true for all polls - political or otherwise.

The point is that it doesn't matter if cell-phone-only young adults are not being polled in large numbers, if at all. The point is that researchers don't need to ask EVERYBODY their opinion to determine - within limits - what the general mood of the country is.

Think of it like this: Your doctor doesn't need to test ALL of your blood to determin your cholestrol level. A few drops is enough. All polling (or opinion research) is based on the same principle.

AVB Offline
#2 Posted: Thu, Oct 7 2004, 9:02 AM EST
Joined: 05-21-2003
Posts: 995
To be accurate a sample has to contain the probability that all members have an equal chance of being selected. When you discount an entire block from your sample the results have to be indicated as such. In the case of polling registered voters by phone it does leave out the sub-set of registered voters who only use a cell phone. If this sub-set does not trend in the same direction as the population it can and will skew the results when they are included. If the sub-set does trend within a 95% confidence level then you can reasonable say their inclusion won't effect the end result.
Sylance Offline
#3 Posted: Thu, Oct 7 2004, 9:17 AM EST
Joined: 06-19-2003
Posts: 592
I agree with AVB, but the notion that cell phone users are more likely to vote for Kerry hasn't been proven and really sounds absurd. I only have a cell phone, no home phone, and I'm definitely NOT going to vote for Kerry... nor is my wife.
SteveS Offline
#4 Posted: Thu, Oct 7 2004, 9:29 AM EST
Joined: 01-13-2002
Posts: 8,751
Wow ... I knew technology had come a long way, but I had NO idea that pollsters are basing their results on blood tests now ...

What sort of markers to they look for to determine your political opinions ???
00camper Offline
#5 Posted: Thu, Oct 7 2004, 9:42 AM EST
Joined: 07-11-2003
Posts: 2,326
Medical science has long been aware of genetic predispositions toward certain illnesses. Political liberalism is a well understood, but difficult to treat, genetic malady affecting roughly half of the population.

Political conservatism - an affliction equally difficult to treat - affects about half of the population as well.

Simple blood tests can determine which ailment a person has. Doctors are still uncertain how to best treat the problem.

While there is no cure for either genetic disorder, support groups such as political parties and blogs have been known to soothe frayed nerves and bruised egos caused by encounters with people affected by the opposite political genetic defect.

SteveS Offline
#6 Posted: Thu, Oct 7 2004, 11:09 AM EST
Joined: 01-13-2002
Posts: 8,751
My oldest son describes himself politically as being "slightly to the left of the Kennedys" and me as being "slightly to the right of Atilla the Hun" ...
Do you mean to tell me I could successfully use that statment to deny paternity ???
00camper Offline
#7 Posted: Thu, Oct 7 2004, 11:19 AM EST
Joined: 07-11-2003
Posts: 2,326
SteveS,
No. The gene mutates over time and through successive generations. Your son's liberal gene has a 50% chance of mutating into the conservative form before he reaches age 35, and an 85% chance of conservative mutation before the age of 60.

You should be aware, however, that there is also a 62% risk of the swing voter gene being activated sometime during his lifetime.

Avoiding exposure to talk radio and the Sunday morning talk shows can reduce the risk to around 49% before the age of 60.
bloody spaniard Offline
#8 Posted: Thu, Oct 7 2004, 11:29 AM EST
Joined: 03-14-2003
Posts: 43,802
^LOL! (at Steve & 00Camper)
Where've you been hiding, Marty?!
00camper Offline
#9 Posted: Thu, Oct 7 2004, 11:35 AM EST
Joined: 07-11-2003
Posts: 2,326
bloody spaniard,
I've been lurking. Trying to avoid getting singed in the flamewar.

Today I thought I'd try writing something funny to see what happened. So far the response has been what I wanted - more fun, less flame.
SteveS Offline
#10 Posted: Thu, Oct 7 2004, 11:46 AM EST
Joined: 01-13-2002
Posts: 8,751
============================================================
Author: 00camper Date: 10/07/2004 04:19 PM
SteveS, ... Your son's liberal gene has a 50% chance of mutating into the conservative form before he reaches age 35 ...
============================================================
Alas, it didn't turn out that way in his 50% ... he's just turned 38 and is getting wackier with age
00camper Offline
#11 Posted: Thu, Oct 7 2004, 12:05 PM EST
Joined: 07-11-2003
Posts: 2,326
SteveS,
There's still the 85% chance of mutation before age 60. Exposure to AM radio broadcasts at loud volume can raise the chances of mutation to about 87%

On the negative side, the set-in-my-ways gene is often awakened in men sometime after their 40th birthday. Women report that this occurs more than 95% of the time while men report the occurance at about 20%.
RICKAMAVEN Offline
#12 Posted: Thu, Oct 7 2004, 12:37 PM EST
Joined: 10-01-2000
Posts: 33,248
00camper

"to determin your cholestrol level. A few drops is enough", unless you have not fasted for 16 hours. if not the test will no longer show the cholestrol being created by the liver, but will include not only the liver output, but also any cholostrol ingested recently. true test results are based on adhering to the rules by which the test results can be determined.

if anyone is troubled by cholestrol problems or if anyone is taking any of the statin drugs that slow the liver's production down and cause muscle cramps or weakness, i would strongly suggest you ask your doctor if he can switch you to zetia which does not have any affect on the liver, but in fact prevents the body from reabsorbing the cholostrol your body is getting ready to dispose of. it is a new drug, tested long enough to insure safety, costs too damn much, is unavailable in canada, but dropped my cholestrol from 192 to 170 in one month and 164 in two months.

just an aside from one of your senior botl.

so as AVB says deviation from legit polling may have skweed the results.

just as a matter of intuition, how many 18-25 year olds knowing a draft is inevitable if we persue the war in iraq and then decide iran is the new culprit, are going to vote to "stay the course" with this administration.

i would also ask what percent of those polled are blacks who are 97% democratic.

i suspect there will be a november surprise, at least i hope so, and this administration will be overwhelmingly defeated.
SteveS Offline
#13 Posted: Thu, Oct 7 2004, 12:43 PM EST
Joined: 01-13-2002
Posts: 8,751
============================================================
"... how many 18-25 year olds knowing a draft is inevitable if we persue the war in iraq and then decide iran is the new culprit, are going to vote to "stay the course" with this administration (?) ..."
============================================================
Sadly, you're probably right about the way they'll vote and their reasons for doing so ...

I say sad, because they're going to vote on the basis of 'sound bites' and misinformation (deliberate DISinformation would be more like it) ... interestingly enough, in fact, it is GWB who is opposed to a draft and Kerry is the one who's said he wouldn't be opposed to one.
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